Global Tables by Partners

Decision-Making for Governments and the Coronavirus Pandemic: Why we need a new Office for Global Risk Preparedness

Curated and produced by CRUISSE Network and the UCL Centre for the Study of Decision-Making Uncertainty

Policy-making is best understood as enacted in contexts of uncertainty and complexity rather than as a lottery. Radical uncertainty arises when you cannot quantify which factors are going to influence the future in what way and you may not know what the consequences of interventions are, or perhaps even where and when you can intervene. And in this situation you are not be the only one in a state of radical uncertainty, because everybody else is as well. 

This is the context we are all in today with COVID-19, so the lack of global preparedness and often slow response to COVID-19 is a case study of the consequences of spending too much time discussing good decision-making as if it’s like lottery choice and too little time learning to be “attentive” to human strengths and weaknesses in coping with Radical Uncertainty. This panel explores how to think and to make better policy under radical uncertainty discusses both a proposal to create an independent Office for Global Risk Preparedness to help us mitigate pandemic and similar global threats in future, and the need to reform university curricula to get real.

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Panel Discussion



David Tuckett

University College London


© Arne Sattler

Gerd Gigerenzer

Harding Center for Risk Literacy

Jürgen Jost

Max Planck Institute

Leonard Smith

London School of Economics

David Tuckett

University College London

© Robert Taylor

Margaret Heffernan


Policy Recommendations, Policy Briefs and Articles

Policy Briefs on COVID-19

Policy Briefs contain recommendations and visions and cover policy ares that are of interest to G20 policymakers. The majority of the Policy Briefs has been developed by a corresponding T20 Task Force.

Fundamental Lessons from the COVID-19 Pandemic

By Dennis J. Snower (Global Solutions Initiative)

Supply and Demand Shocks in the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Industry and Occupation Perspective

By Anton Pichler, François Lafond, J. Doyne Farmer, R. Maria del Rio-Chanona, Penny Mealy (University of Oxford – Institute for New Economic Thinking)

Geopolitical symptoms of COVID-19: Narrative battles within the Eastern Partnership

By Mihai-Razvan Corman (Bertelsmann Stiftung) and Eliana Coraci (Bertelsmann Stiftung)

The COVID-19 Pandemic: Government vs. Community Action Across the United States

By Adam Brzezinski, Guido Deiana, Valentin Kecht and David Van Dijcke (University of Oxford – The Institute for New Economic Thinking)

Infrastructure for Growth Post COVID-19

By Alberto Belladonna (ISPI) and Alessandro Gili (ISPI)

The fiscal response to the economic fallout from the coronavirus

By Julia Anderson, Enrico Bergamini, Sybrand Brekelmans, Aliénor Cameron, Zsolt Darvas, Marta Domínguez Jíménez (Bruegel)

A crisis in times of crisis: Combating COVID-19 under sanctions in Iran?

By Sonali Chowdhury, Anna-Katharina Jacobs & Kathrin Kamin (Kiel Institute for the World Economy) 

Awakening in the post-pandemic world

Mitigating the work-security trade-off while rebooting the economy

By Tito Boeri (INPS), Alessandro Caiumi (Bocconi University) & Marco Paccagnella (OECD)

Will COVID-19 Remake the World?

By Dani Rodrik (Harvard University – Kennedy School of Government)

The RSA Emergency Basic Income scheme: Cash now for the self-employed

By Anthony Painter, Alan Lockey, Fabian Wallace-Stephens (RSA)

It Is Time To Think Differently About Health

By Sandro Galea (School of Public Health, Boston University)

COVID-19 Calls for a Marshall Plan for Health

By Sandro Galea (School of Public Health, Boston University)

COVID-19: Lockdown exit strategies for Africa

By Stephen Karingi (United Nations Economic Commission for Africa)

COVID-19 in Africa: Protecting Lives and Economies

By Stephen Karingi (United Nations Economic Commission for Africa)

COVID-19 and Latin America

By Fernando Filgueria (Universidad de la República, Urugua)

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