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Exchange Rate Volatility and its Impact on Borrowing Costs

Ashima Goyal (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research), Sritama Ray (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)
This Policy Brief was first published in https://t20ind.org

Abstract

Reducing borrowing costs for emerging markets (EMs) remains a massive challenge. While the interest rate differential (IRD) is near- zero for advanced economies, for EMs, it is always positive. Excess exchange rate volatility is often due to global and not domestic factors, so that a pure float fails to act as a shock absorber. The additional country risk premia that foreign investors seek are primarily driven by a fear of unexpected currency depreciation; which often does not take place, and thus there are positive excess returns from EM assets. To reduce EM IRDs, exchange rate volatility, risk and risk-perceptions have to fall. A suitable exchange rate regime and domestic as well as international prudential regulation on cross-border capital flows can lower exchange rate volatility. Global pooling/insurance mechanisms and better payment systems can reduce exchange rate risk at a low cost. If the G20 communiqués address these issues it could help reduce risk- perceptions.

Authors

Ashima Goyal (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research), Sritama Ray (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research)

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