Decision-Making for Governments and the Coronavirus Pandemic: Why we need a new Office for Global Risk Preparedness

Policy Area:
Global Health Security and COVID-19

Curated and produced by CRUISSE Network and the UCL Centre for the Study of Decision-Making Uncertainty

Policy-making is best understood as enacted in contexts of uncertainty and complexity rather than as a lottery. Radical uncertainty arises when you cannot quantify which factors are going to influence the future in what way and you may not know what the consequences of interventions are, or perhaps even where and when you can intervene. And in this situation you are not be the only one in a state of radical uncertainty, because everybody else is as well.

This is the context we are all in today with COVID-19, so the lack of global preparedness and often slow response to COVID-19 is a case study of the consequences of spending too much time discussing good decision-making as if it’s like lottery choice and too little time learning to be “attentive” to human strengths and weaknesses in coping with Radical Uncertainty. This panel explores how to think and to make better policy under radical uncertainty discusses both a proposal to create an independent Office for Global Risk Preparedness to help us mitigate pandemic and similar global threats in future, and the need to reform university curricula to get real.

Experts

Gerd Gigerenzer

University of Potsdam

Jürgen Jost

Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences

Leonard Smith

London School of Economics

David Tuckett

University College London

Solution Sessions

Keynote by David Tuckett

Why we need a new Office for Global Risk Preparedness

Policy Briefs

Boosting equitable access and production of diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccines to confront Covid-19 on a global footing

John Nkengason - African Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Lieve Fransen - European Policy Centre; and Wits University, Smita Srinivas - Co-Chair T20 Italy Task Force on Global Health and Covid-19; Open University; National Centre for Biological Sciences TIFR-NCBS; and University College London, Stefano Vella - Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore

Health systems: strengthening preparedness

Chiara Cadeddu - Department of Life Sciences and Public Health, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Fabrizio Landi - Toscana Life Sciences, Mario Raviglione - MACH Centre, Università di Milano, Marta Dassù - Aspen Institute Italia, Niccolò Serri - University of Cambridge, Sabrina Montante - Head of EU Affairs-Health Research Sector, Walter Ricciardi - Faculty of Medicine and Surgery, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore

Global equity for global health

Catherine K. Ettman - Boston University School of Public Health, Lily Parsey - International Longevity Center, Nason Maani - London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Salma M Abdalla - Boston University School of Public Health, Sandro Galea - Boston University School of Public Health

From pathogens to people: Enhancing reporting and surveillance for more effective control of disease outbreaks

David Kaplan - International Science Council (ISC), Elena Rovenskaya - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), John Ryan - Directorate General Health and Food Safety, European Commission, Kent Buse - The George Institute for Global Health, Paola Testori Coggi - T20 Istituto Affari Internazionali, Sarah Hawkes - University College London (UCL), Sergey Sizov - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Regional collective action to address Covid-19 and prepare for future pandemics

Ana B. Amaya - Pace University, Philippe De Lombaerde - United Nations University Institute on Comparative Regional Integration Studies (UNU-CRIS); and Neoma Business School

Culture and sciences for life: Towards a global health literacy alliance for a sustainable future

Alex Mauron - University of Geneva, Ana Sbutega - Novartis Italy, Andrea Grignolio - Corsini Vita-Salute S. Raffaele University and CNR-CID Ethics, Barbara Prainsack - University of Vienna, Enrico Caiani - Polytechnic of Milan, Francesco Blasi - University of Milan, Gaia Panina - Novartis Italy, Marco Montorsi - Humanitas University, Maria Grazia Magro - Human Technopole, Marica Nobile - Human Technopole

One health-based conceptual frameworks for comprehensive and coordinated prevention

Alberto Mantovani - Food Safety, Nutrition and Veterinary Public Health Department, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Alessia Milano - National Center for Global Health, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Andrea Lavazza - Centro Universitario Internazionale, Chikwe Ihekweazu - Nigeria Centre for Disease Control, Claudia Robbiati - National Center for Global Health, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Flavia Riccardo - Infectious Diseases Department, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Francesco Cubadda - Food Safety, Nutrition and Veterinary Public Health Department, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Gaia Scavia - Food Safety, Nutrition and Veterinary Public Health Department, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Laura Mancini - Environment and Health Department, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Laura Villa - Infectious Diseases Department, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Maria Grazia Dente - National Centre for Global Health, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Mario Carere - Environment and Health Department, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Matteo Villa - Istituto per gli studi di politica internazionale (ISPI), Mirko Farina - Institute for Humanities and Social Sciences, Innopolis University, Monica Monaco - Infectious Diseases Department, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Osman A Dar - Public Health England, Silvia Declich - National Center for Global Health, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Stefania Marcheggiani - Environment and Health Department, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Stefano Morabito - Food Safety, Nutrition and Veterinary Public Health Department, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Umberto Agrimi - Food Safety, Nutrition and Veterinary Public Health Department, Istituto Superiore di Sanità

Accelerating progress toward universal health coverage

Ahmed Alamri - Riyadh Economic Forum, Hanan Alahmadi - Riyadh Economic Forum, Husein Reka - Asia Global Institute, Hong Kong University, Jonty Roland - Health For All Advisory

Reaffirming the significance of global public goods for health: Global solidarity in response to Covid-19 and future shocks

Alex Ezeh - Drexel University, Philadelphia, Blaise Nguendo-Yongsi - University of Yaoundé, Blessing Mberu - African Population and Health Research Center, Franz Gatsweiler - Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Gavin Yamey - Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, K. Srikanth Reddy - Bruyère Research Institute, Margo Thomas - Women’s Economic Imperative, Obijiofor Aginam - UN University-International Institute for Global Health, Osondu Ogbuoji - Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Sainath Banerjee - Asian Development Bank - Center for Urban Health and Development, Sandro Galea - Boston University School of Public Health, Yonette Felicity Thomas - Borjoner International

Policy actions to safeguard the operations of GVCS in times of crisis and beyond

Adnan Serič - United Nations Industrial Development Organization, Ahmad Younis - Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, Aleksander Siemaszko - Poland's Ministry of Economic Development, Anthony Hammond - Yale School of Medicine, Mark Votruba - Case Western Reserve University, Mohmmad S. Alrajeh - Ministry of National Guard Health Affairs, Olayinka Idowu Kareem - University of Hohenheim, Stefan Pahl - University of Groningen

Covid-19: An eye opener to upscale investments in sustainable transport to accelerate progress toward a more livable and climate resilient future

AHM Mehbub Anwar - King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC), Aishah Alatawi - University of Tabuk, Farhina Pasha - University of Tabuk, Radia Sedaoui - Economic Commission of Western Asia (UN-ESCWA), Steven Griffiths - Senior Vice President, Research and Development, Khalifa University

Ensuring that Covid-19 recovery policies support the transformation to a climate neutral society

Abdelrahman Muhsen - King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC), Amm Quamruzzaman - University of California Berkeley, Axel Michaelowa - University of Zurich, Mohammed Dabboor - Environment and Climate Change Canada, Government of Canada, Noura Mansouri - King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC), Sonja Butzengeiger - Perspectives Climate Research

Covid-19 and the global education emergency: Planning systems for recovery and resilience

Alejandra Cardini - CIPPEC, Amélie A. Gagnon - UNESCO-IIEP, Hugues Moussy - UNESCO-IIEP, Iván Matovich - Center for the Implementation of Public Policies Promoting Equity and Growth (CIPPEC), Kate Moriarty - INEE, Nicolas Reuge - UNICEF, Prachi Srivastava - University of Western Ontario, Robert Jenkins - UNICEF, Sonja Anderson - INEE

G20 coalition in transformative action for education: Ensuring continuity of learning within and beyond the Covid-19 crisis

Abdul Ghaffar Mughal - Northeastern University, Charlotte Holland - Dublin City University, Dalal Aldeghaither - King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, Mohammad Nurunnabi - Prince Sultan University

Ensuring an equitable pandemic response: Lessons learned from Covid-19

Aljawhara Al Quayid - King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC), T20 Saudi Arabia, Hanan Al Ahmadi - Riyadh Economic Forum, Nasser Bindhim - Sharik Society for Health and Community Research, Saleh Al Muhanna - King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC), T20 Saudi Arabia, Waleed Al Salem - Umm Al-Qura University

Addressing mental health needs during the Covid-19 pandemic and beyond

Lisa Bilal - King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Center, Ronald C. Kessler - Harvard Medical School, Yasmin Altwaijri - King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Center

Investing in universal health systems aimed at Covid-19 and beyond

Amani Alkofide - King Faisal Specialist Hospital & Research Centre, Luiz Eduardo Fonseca - Center for Global Health – Fiocruz, Radia Sedaoui - Economic Commission of Western Asia (UN-ESCWA), Rym Ayadi - Euro-Mediterranean Network for Economic Studies (EMNES), CASS Business School, Viqaruddin Mohammed - King Faisal Specialist Hospital & Research Centre

The Covid-19 crisis and tourism: Response and recovery measures to support the tourism sector in OECD countries

Alain Dupeyras - OECD Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities, Jane Stacey - OECD Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities, Peter Haxton - OECD Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions and Cities

The Covid-19 crisis and the global economy: Challenges and policy requirements

Luiz de Mello - OECD, Nigel Pain - Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Sveinbjorn Blondal - Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

Heightening cybersecurity to promise safety and fairness for citizens in the Post-Covid-19 Digital World

Bhushan Sethi - PwC US, Muhammad Khurram Khan - Center of Excellence in Information Assurance (CoEIA) King Saud University, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Paul Grainger - Centre for Education and Work, UCL, Stefanie Goldberg - PwC US

A sustainable urbanization and infrastructure response to the Covid-19 pandemic

Holger Kühle - GIZ, Jörn Meyer - GIZ, Mitch Cook - The New School, Susan Parnell - University of Bristol and Emeritus Professor at the African Centre for Cities (ACC), University of Cape Town, Nicolas Buchoud - Grand Paris Alliance for Metropolitan Development, Raja Almarzoqi - Saudi Arabia, Michael Cohen - Milano School of Policy, Management, and Environment

Transversal G20 response to Covid-19: Global governance for economic, social, health, and environmental resilience

Elizabeth Sidiropoulos - South African Institute of International Affairs, Gianluca Grimalda - Kiel Institute for the World Economy, John Kirton - Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at Trinity College, University of Toronto, Jonathan Luckhurst - Soka University, K. Srikanth Reddy - Bruyère Research Institute, Marc Fleurbaey - Princeton University, Margo Thomas - Women’s Economic Imperative, Veronika Ertl - Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, W. Andy Knight - University of Alberta

Multilateralism in times of global pandemic: Lessons learned and the way forward

Anindya Chatterjee - International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Daniel D. Bradlow - University of Pretoria, Maha Akeel - Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), Sara Lechtenberg-Kasten - King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC), Syed Munir Khasru - Institute for Policy, Advocacy, and Governance (IPAG)

The role of monetary policy in worldwide solidarity in the face of Covid-19

Amedeo Argentiero - KORE University of Enna, Carlo Andrea Bollino - Perugia Energy Environment Research Center (CREEP), University of Perugia, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC), Maria Chiara D’errico - University of Perugia, Mirko Abbritti - University of Perugia, Navarra Center for International Development, Mustafa Yagci - Islamic Development, Paolo Polinori - University of Perugia, Silvia Mecheli - University of Perugia, Simona Bigerna - University of Perugia

Impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on migrant workers in the informal sector and spin-off effects in their destination and home countries

Ana B. Moreno - OnCities, Dramane Coulibaly - University of Paris Nanterre, Fatih Karanfil - King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC), Hind Kinani - International Organization for Migration, Luc Désiré Omgba - University of Lorraine, Mohamed Sharif Ahmed - International Organization for Migration, Nhusha Vu - OnCities

Monetary Policies Strategies and the COVID-19 Crisis

Franco Bruni - Bocconi University Milan, José Siaba Serrate - Argentine Council for International Relations CARI

The Sustainable Development Agenda: Leveraging the G20 to Enhance Accountability and Financing

Dennis Görlich - & Program Manager, Socio-Economic Transformation, Homi Kharas - The Brookings Institution, Sebastian Strauss - Global Economy and Development, The Brookings Institution , Wilfried Rickels - Kiel Institute for the World Economy

Fundamental Lessons from the COVID-19 Pandemic

Dennis Snower - Global Solutions Initiative

A Bretton Woods Moment: Crafting the World We Want – and Our Children Deserve

Sean Cleary - Future World Foundation & Global Solutions Initiative Special Advisor

Rebuild after the crisis on three pillars: Equity, security and sustainability

Sean Cleary - Future World Foundation & Global Solutions Initiative Special Advisor

Global Trade Cooperation after COVID-19: Can the G20 Contain Disintegration?

Peter Draper - Institute for International Trade in the Faculty of the Professions, University of Adelaide, Australia

Reinvigorating multilateral cooperation during the COVID-19 crisis: The role of the G20

Dennis Görlich - & Program Manager, Socio-Economic Transformation, Juliane Stein-Zalai - Kiel Institute for the World Economy

To ease the health-wealth trade-off, reallocate digital property rights

Dennis Snower - Global Solutions Initiative

COVID-19 Response Strategies, Addressing Digital Gender Divides

Barbara Orser - University of Ottawa, Margo Thomas - Women’s Economic Imperative, Lindsey Nefesh-Clarke - Womens WorldWide Web (W4)

Commentaries and Articles

Awakening in the post-pandemic world

The Brookings Institution

A Coordinated, Unlimited and Flexible Insurance Policy to Respond to the Pandemic

By Gonzalo García-Andrés (Elcano Royal Institute)

Supply and Demand Shocks in the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Industry and Occupation Perspective

By Anton Pichler, François Lafond, J. Doyne Farmer, R. Maria del Rio-Chanona, Penny Mealy (University of Oxford – Institute for New Economic Thinking)

The Coronavirus as a Yardstick of Global Health Policy

By Félix Arteaga (Elcano Royal Institute)

Networks and Technologies to Assist the Vulnerable During the Pandemic

By Matthias Helble and Paul Vandenberg (ADBI)

Geopolitical symptoms of COVID-19: Narrative battles within the Eastern Partnership

By Mihai-Razvan Corman (Bertelsmann Stiftung) and Eliana Coraci (Bertelsmann Stiftung)

The COVID-19 Pandemic: Government vs. Community Action Across the United States

By Adam Brzezinski, Guido Deiana, Valentin Kecht and David Van Dijcke (University of Oxford – The Institute for New Economic Thinking)

Infrastructure for Growth Post COVID-19

By Alberto Belladonna (ISPI) and Alessandro Gili (ISPI)

COVID-19 and the Crisis of National Development

By Cobus van Staden (SAIIA)